The CanWest Death Watch

One of my favourite bloggers, Ottawa Watch, has a recurring segment called the Canwest Death Watch. He hasn't gotten around to linking to this story (tip of the hat to federal Liberal Party back-roomer Warren Kinsella), but give him time. From reading the story, I would imagine Canwest's financial problems are even worse than what we're led to believe, and I would give the organization six months to a year before it all comes crashing down ... not just the folding of the National Post (which would rebirth itself as the Financial Post, which was what it was before Conrad Black bought it to make it into the business section of the NP) but the collapse of the Canadian mainstream print journalism system.

I still think that Stephen Harper isn't going to let one of his biggest (only) boosters go down the financial drain. That's why the federal government will amend its legislation to allow a majority share of Canadian media outlets to be owned by non-Canadians, allowing Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation to buy Canwest Global on the cheap. But News Corp. is having its own problems.

Are we going to wake up one morning and see no Leader-Post on our doorstep? Or see Jill Whatshername on News At Six begin the newscast ... 'This just in ... MY PAY CHEQUE BOUNCED!" Maybe, but unlikely. The television system that's set up today doesn't allow for small, independent television stations -- they all have to be part of a massive chain (CBC, CTV Globemedia or Canwest Global) or they don't get the programs to fill their schedule.

The print edition is a different thing: the L-P and the Star-Phoenix's dead tree editions remain profitable -- what's killing them is the increasing amount of profits they have to pay to head office in order to keep Canwest from sinking faster into its ocean of red ink. Journalists are relatively cheap to employ (especially with a J-school trundling out grads every April who need to work at whatever job they can find to build up a portfolio and keep Kraft Dinner on the table), and hiring Marty Klyne as publisher, someone with a lot of roots in Regina's business community, will go a long way to help the L-P negotiate its sale to local concerns. The only problem may be that by the time the L-P goes up for sale, the newsroom will be cut so dramatically that Reginans may find that there's nothing worth reading in the newspaper ... which is always a bad sign if you're trying to attract readers.

So what does it all mean? First things first. I would imagine that the local private radio stations -- say, Harvard and Rawlco -- are taking a good look at buying the L-P and Saskatoon Star-Phoenix on a discount in the ensuing fire sale.

Secondly, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers may as well give up the fantasy that they are going to be playing in a brand-spanking new football stadium. In fact, I think the reverse will be true -- the Bombers will probably one of the next CFL teams to undergo a financial meltdown as a community board of directors pick up the pieces from David Asper's financial flameout. Ottawa Watch calls the Asper family's crisis management of Canwest Global the 'flinging tables and chairs in the way of the people who are trying to chase you out of the bar' strategy ... the Bombers will be just another piece of furniture flung the creditors' way when it all goes down, as it appears it will, inevitably, in 12 to 18 months.